Well I think we will get our answer come late spring/summer. I take my que from the power point data laid out by Celsius energy. If you look at their Feb 1 data it shows
1.power burn of 40.8bcft an increase of 16.1bcft over 2022
2.7day average share of consumption up 5.7 percent vs last year
3. For the period of Jan 26 to Feb 1 the 7 day average of 34.4bcft is 7.8bcft higher than last year.
I take power burn as being largely temperature independent as utilities have other sources of power and natural gas for a while has gained market share.
Yes we have residential and commercial heating which is very much weather dependent and with average temperatures we would not be seeing a deficit.
By spring we will see that huge shortfall in demand disappear and by summer we could see an actual excess demand outstripping supply given the weather.
I have been using HNU to do some short term trades but once a direction becomes fully established I will buy and hold for what I anticipate will be a nice run.
I am also looking at adding to the gassy producers I sold earlier but right now the momentum is just too negative so who knows what further downside is likely.
On balance I will revisit producers come the spring in the meantime I am playing the swings in HNU where with careful management you can do some trading given the 5-10 percent daily swings.
Take care
J