"... I actually think that the real prices will be at least $40 higher in 2028, half of which will be due to decrease in the value of the $US and half due to supply-demand." -P

 

That represents a 49% increase in real oil prices (from Brent US$82/bbl) over a 5-year period.

 

That would call for a decline in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the US dollar of roughly 20%.

 

 That is in line with past US-dollar REER corrections. Source

 

 

 

 An additional steep decline in the US REER would be positive for all kinds of reasons both inside and outside of the USA. I doubt it will happen if the military standoff in Ukraine drags on and on and weapons deployed become increasingly deadly and destructive in a slow 'n steady arms race. 

 

Under that scenario, the USA remains the 'safe haven' of choice for mobile global capital and relative US dollar declines will remain muted.