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Msg  50394 of 50411  at  5/10/2023 5:52:09 PM  by


The following message was updated on 5/10/2023 5:53:24 PM.

Alberta fires


The impact of the wildfires in Alberta’s natural gas basins is starting to be felt south of the border as producers shut in production, processing plants and pipelines.

Canadian gas exports to the US — Alberta’s largest export market — were down about 1.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) or about 20% of daily volumes.

According to US data provider Refinitive, as per Reuters, Canadian gas flows fell to about 6.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) on Tuesday from a relatively steady 8.5 bcf per day pace that's been maintained since the start of the year. It was the lowest level in about 25 months although it started to tick back up on Wednesday.

According to Alberta Wildfires, the number of fires in the province fell overnight to 81 — 24 are considered out of control — from 109 at the start of the week. However, northern regions are bracing for another blast of hot dry air this weekend, where temperatures are expected to hit 27C.

That could in turn place more strain on energy exports. In addition to gas, about 310,000 barrels of oil equivalent were shut in as of Wednesday.

In comparison, Canada produced about 17 bcf/d of gas last year — Alberta accounted for a little more than 10.1 bcf/d with most of the rest coming from BC — and exported about half of it to the US, according to the Canadian Energy Regulator.

NYMEY nat gas

The deficit in pipeline receipts in turn caused natural gas futures to jump about 2% in New York to $2.30US per million British thermal units (Btu), yesterday the highest level in more than a week, but well off $8 recorded at this time a year ago.

It comes as Americans start to turn on their air conditioners, marking the start of summer cooling season. That could provide some much needed relief for Canadian natural gas producers.

In a separate report, the US government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects this summer will see the second-highest level of gas demand for electrical generation, surpassed only by last summer, depending on weather or the number of “cooling days” generated by heat waves. The EIA said it also expects to see gains in wind and solar, and even hydro as a result of the wet winter in California.

“Our forecast for the consumption of electricity and for the amount Americans pay for electricity this summer is highly dependent on weather,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.

“If this summer turns out to be warmer than we expect, we will see more demand for air conditioning, greater electricity use, and higher bills.”

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