I further think the odds of expropriation in Ireland is effectively zero. As for additional taxation in Ireland, 2 factors lean in our favour:
1. The fiscal regime in Ireland is unique. There are no royalties. What there is is 25% taxation on profits. Therefore, Corrib has become the golden goose for Ireland. Could they try to usurp more? Possibly, however; they are getting much more revenue with current profitability than was ever anticipated.
2. Corrib is Ireand's only substantial producing asset (there are minor gas assets in the Irish Sea running down to abandonment). As VET notes, the Irish plan to install 9 gas turbines for electricity generation (presumably as coal is shunned). The Irish government would be very, very cognizant of the need to maintain strong incentive for VET (as the operator and Canada Pension Plan as the deep-pocketed backer) to backfill the declining Corrib production rather than encourage abandonment. Plus they wouldn't wish all their eggs in the Corrib-VET basket. The Atlantic margin is quite prospective (geologically, it matches up with the Flemish Cap off Newfoundland, analogous to the match between Angola and Brazil's respective offshore largesse). To go back to Corrib, despite a 12-13 year production horizon, a final disposition decision will be considerably closer to the present if further satellite field development is the desired policy alternative. There are currently no offsetting fallow fields, just strong prospects. From a policy perspective, the Irish energy ministry would be advised that multiple prospects must first be drilled. And that there is no assurance that this exploration phase wouldn't require multiple drilling seasons, time to evaluate discoveries, time to tie-in in a very harsh environment (this is the open Atlantic), etc.