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Msg  441050 of 453627  at  8/13/2022 8:25:30 PM  by


Living and working in La-La Land

In “DECARBONIZATION AND ELECTRIFICATION IN THE LONG RUN” (National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 30082, May 2022), Professors Stephen P. Holland, Erin T. Mansur, and Andrew J. Yates create a mathematical model to predict how the United States will produce its electricity in the future and the amount of carbon emissions that production will require.
Based on 'white papers' like this the Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected the job growth for Utility Workers employed in Electrical Power Generation:  -25% in 2030 versus 2020
Some of the premises the White paper assumes:
 Similar to renewables, nuclear energy can decarbonize electricity without carbon pricing, but only if capital costs are reduced sufficiently: approximately a 50% cost reduction is required in our calibration.
 We find the largest benefit from transmission connecting wind resources in the Midwest with demand in the East.
 Storage does not generate benefits of any significant magnitude even with complementary policies that reduce costs of renewable generation unless batteries become almost free and sufficient battery storage is constructed to allow interseasonal storage.
 In our baseline, load shocks in most hours and locations simply increase natural gas capacity
  a charging profile in which charging occurs exclusively in mid-day has negative incremental emissions...because it induces a dramatic entry of renewables.
  Third, if battery capacity is completely free, the optimal battery capacity is enormous.
Edit:  To be so disconnected from reality...they might be considered, off the grid.

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
441051 Re: Living and working in La-La Land agrossfarm 6 8/13/2022 8:35:55 PM
441054 Re: Living and working in La-La Land rotor_losses 2 8/13/2022 10:22:46 PM

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