US crude production correlates with rig count on an 8 month lag. US rig count peaked about 8 months ago and down since so US production should decline rest of year (starting now-ish).
OPEC volumes did drop in May based on FRO earnings report today, so OPEC cuts just showing up. SPR releases end in a week or so?
As long as WW demand holds up inventory levels are likely to be bullish for oil prices rest of year.