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Re: Real world stays ugly.>> If inflation is real, why are energy prices collapsing? Because the present climate disfavors manufacturing and investment (supply) while at the same time it favors consumption (demand). As manufacturing folds up and goes away, so does the rush hour traffic. Less employment = less energy demand = lower energy prices. And the Federal Reserve's job is not yet done. Europe is also a large slice. Their natural gas availability was sliced by the war in Ukraine (in various stages starting with the Nordstream sabotage). To keep their population viable, natural gas to industrial facilities was cut and Europe turned from manufacturing to import. That import flooded the US with demand that displaced Federal-Reserve-tempered US consumer demand, keeping the US economy hot and US inflation simmering. In the gas-flows, interestingly, scheduling from paperboard plants soared at facilities that were before mostly dormant. That was for packaging up goods made in the US for export to Europe. Normally such goods are shipped in bulk in tightly packed containers, then packaged up in the countries that receive the goods. Not this time. Paperboard (cardboard) is craft paper sprayed with starch and baked at 650 degrees in a continuous-feed oven heated by natural gas. Europe does not have the natural gas to do this, so the packaging has to be done elsewhere. Below is the monthly consumption table. This is all US paperboard plants lumped together. Notice the ramping "US-Sourced" columns for 2023. The US economy is not cooling overall, it is getting hotter as Europe collapses. ===============================Monthly.US Consumption Model.(MMCF/Day)============================== ....................Total US Consumption....................................US-Sourced..........................................Foreign-Sourced............... ..........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022........2018....2019....2020....2021....2022 .........=====..=====..=====..=====..=====....=====..=====..=====..=====..=====.....=====..=====..=====..=====..===== 01......73.03...64.21...66.78...71.29...69.32.....26.52...27.15...27.26...29.78...28.41..... 46.52.. 37.06.. 39.52.. 41.51.. 40.91. 02......66.75...59.38...64.74...76.67...71.20.....21.36...21.98...25.02...34.03...28.88..... 45.39.. 37.40.. 39.72.. 42.64.. 42.32. 03......65.44...61.72...60.87...73.19...70.53.....21.66...26.87...24.58...32.72...29.75..... 43.78.. 34.85.. 36.29.. 40.47.. 40.78. 04......61.59...58.50...68.70...64.75...71.34.....20.24...24.38...32.57...29.65...33.14..... 41.35.. 34.12.. 36.13.. 35.10.. 38.20. 05......61.21...58.93...66.20...64.57...74.55i....22.27...26.29...33.16...26.87...36.20i.... 38.94.. 32.64.. 33.05.. 37.70.. 38.35i. 06......57.76...56.83...71.52...61.88..................26.66...24.65...37.49...27.92.................. 31.10.. 32.18.. 34.03.. 33.95.. .......... 07......55.91...61.06...65.07...64.16..................24.09...24.85...33.34...30.62.................. 31.83.. 36.21.. 31.74.. 33.53.. .......... 08......55.81...55.74...65.63...61.43..................24.01...21.85...32.19...27.26.................. 31.80.. 33.88.. 33.44.. 34.17.. .......... 09......54.84...61.26...61.73...64.97..................23.70...26.08...30.07...26.83.................. 31.14.. 35.18.. 31.66.. 38.14.. .......... 10......53.98...58.85...59.13...57.38..................23.45...24.63...27.47...23.52.................. 30.54.. 34.22.. 31.66.. 33.86.. .......... 11......60.96...63.41...62.36...63.75..................25.65...25.79...25.44...25.47.................. 35.30.. 37.62.. 36.91.. 38.28.. .......... 12......60.22...64.57...69.37...64.57..................25.24...25.43...30.11...24.19.................. 34.97.. 39.14.. 39.26.. 40.38.. .......... |
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| Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
| 501089 | Re: Real world stays ugly - Rob | fubar | 5 | 5/31/2023 11:28:45 AM |
