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Re: OPEC Doesn't Need to Announce Additional Cuts-Revised"Based on a Reuters report just released, OPEC only cut 480,000 barrels a day during May, against a pledge of 1,039,000 barrels a day. Not even 50% compliance." Actual undercompliance was very small, even tiny as OPEC never promised 1039K bpd cut, but rather several leaders have promised. SA, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Gabon and Algeria have promised. Outside Iraq the total cuts were 750K bpd vs. pledged 828K bpd, or 90.6% compliance. Not so bad. Basically SA 70K bpd and Gabon 8K bpd only. Iraq is the separate issue. It raised 50K bpd from April because its Kurdish 475K bpd exports remained shut. Iraq still well underproduced its quota. The important to account the 2021-2022 underperformers like Nigeria, Angola etc. I always considered them as a spare capacity, just not turning valves overnight. Their total combined with Iraq contributed 200K bpd raised m/m and results on total OPEC "non-compliance". They all complied with their quotas, but were catching up...and will eventually reach them. Notes: regarding SA - even if they cut less than 500K bpd m/m they basically have complied with its quota 10 mm bpd as they produced in April below their quota. Also SA exports have plunged 1 mm bpd in May despite just 470K bpd production cut. Best wishes, romm |
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