Not questioning anything here, except how come each and every expert, guru, trading company, etc. was saying the supplies are tight?
I guess, it is the same thing as with depletion. In my view, it is very owerstated. And the reason (in my very cynical view) is that it supports you being in business.
Who is claiming high depletion rates? Major oil experts, drillers, producers. Those numbers make everybody scared, and all associated services become more important and more valuable.
Many people were saying that something does not add up in their attempts to create a balanced picture of supply, demand, usage, storage, etc. I think the 'extra supply' was coming from lower depletion.
But that is my uneducated view.