Energy Investing - EIA weekly: not good, but not so bad, better than feared - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


This is a semi-private group. You are free to browse messages, but you must be a member of this group to post messages. Join This Group

Group: Energy Investing   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 
 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  501289 of 552048  at  6/1/2023 11:44:59 AM  by

romm


EIA weekly: not good, but not so bad, better than feared

Much better than API last night in all crude and products....especially in products....especially if you add jet fuels.
 
Total commercial crude/gas/dist/jet:  4.5 - 0.2 + 1 - 1.2 = 4.1 mm bbl build
Including SPR draw 2.5 mm bbl the total build was 1.6 mm bbl.
Not good for this time of the year, but not bad at all considering huge draws last week.
 
Cushing build: large 1.7 mm bbl. However total Padd2 build was 0.8 mm bbl only.
That means outside Cushing Padd2 stocks were drawn by 0.9 mm bbl.
 
Most build occurred in padd3 - 4.3 mm bbl out of 4.5 mm bbl.
This was clearly due to exports modeled higher than actually loadeded.
 
This clearly represented by very high positive adjustments 1.945 mm bbl jumped from 456K bpd last week.
Adjustments represented the underestimated US production by 500K bpd (12.7 mm bpd in March from yesterday 914 vs. 12.2 mm bpd in this weekly) plus 945K bpd overestimated exports leaving normal 500K bpd for plant condensate.
 
Crude exports were very good at 4.915 mm bpd along with my view of being sticky to 5 mm bpd, but actual loading were lower represented by adjustments. 
 
Imports were very high mostly in Padd3 offsetting low imports last week with inline average. However imports are still too high for a tight market.
I expect Saudis to stop or greatly reduce imports to its Motiva refinery. 
 
Product inventories were much better than API reported yesterday especially gasoline.
After the API yesterday I commented that I wasn't expected product builds because the reported week was still pre-holiday. EIA had confirmed my expectations.
Don't be surprised to see product builds next week....one week only.
 
Jet fuel stocks were drawn reversing builds in previous weeks. Jet demand is rising. 
 
Overall product supply have declined sequentially, not surprised with smaller transfers from commercial o retail, but 4-week average is good.
Demand is not so great as IEA constantly forecasts as work from home still persists reducing commutes, but still decent.
 
I would view this report not in isolation, but combined with several previous reports and also modeled expectations for next 4 reports....even next 12 reports.
 
Best of luck,
romm 
 


     e-mail to a friend      printer-friendly     add to library      
|  
Recs: 36  
   Views: 0 []
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board

Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
501298 Re: EIA weekly: not good, but not so bad, better than feared ScottMc 5 6/1/2023 12:51:04 PM




Financial Market Data provided by
.
Loading...