"I anticipate energy (oil included) will turn bullish once the world's
central banks are done with wringing out demand, but they are not done
yet."

Well put , and this is the crux of the matter. However, I would argue the tug of war is not over consumer goods, but over the supply and demand of money. For instance, we have monetary policy at -600B over the last 12 months , but we have fiscal policy at +1700B. That is a tug of war. This is just the usa so the eu and asia are equally important.