Crude oil capacity now is 18.3 MBD.
Crude oil capacity in 2019 was 18.8 MBD.
And the chart shows what looks like less than 400K bpd decline. Remaining refineries have increased their run rates and are working harder. That is evidence toward the opposite conclusion.
However, demand also includes net imports/exports and stock changes. EU choices to boycott refining the oils that their refineries have been optimized for means more waste product (gasoline) available for export from the EU. So EU exports increase and we are the largest nearby market with the closest market, PADD 1, having inadequate operating refinery capacity.