Re: Refinery run rate sucks (edited)
"The refinery run rate is lower for sure. But imports of finished gasoline are up almost 900k per day in 2023 relative to 2019. There are lots of moving parts. I don't think US gasoline demand grows much from here if at all. The miles driven data from the EIA indicates that the US is back to pre-Covid levels of automobile use. I don't think the weakness in oil is demand-driven.
The FRED database provides vehicle miles driven data for the US. In 2019 the highest monthly print was 293 billion miles. In 2023, the peak was 288 billion , so miles driven is still down a bit. "
Agree USA gasoline demand is probably going to be stagnant moving forward. There will be a permanent loss due to working from home. Anyways the US and Europe aren't the demand story going forward. Worldwide demand growth is going to come from Asia and the rest of the developing world.