Re: Home Alone
Just a high risk biotech with potentially high reward that I would humbly like to submit:
Notes on DRRX:
Their main medication is DUR-928. This is an epigenetic modifier. This could be a whole platform in one drug. Epigenetic modifiers do most of the work in regard to regulating cells. This particular drug is right now being studied for alcohol associated hepatitis disease. This situation is where someone who drinks a lot almost every day starts to drink even more with some binge drinking. This over loads the liver and this patient comes into the emergency dept when they are acutely ill and have markedly elevated liver enzymes and orange eyes.
The thing that is important to know about this is that they have the actual records of how many patients came into the ER last year with this diagnosis. That was 137,000. This number was higher than the year before and it keeps getting higher. The COVID pandemic has caused people to drink even more than they used to and thus the number keeps rising. Unlike some diseases where the experts don't have actual numbers of how many people actually have a disease, like in aTTR amyloidosis, with this situation they actually know. The usual hospitalization costs for this illness are between $58,000 and $152,000 per patient. The patient's that are able to survive it have an estimated hospital stay of about 5 days and the ones that don't respond to treatment and eventually succumb to the illness have a hospital bill of about $152,000. There is no actual treatment available at this time. Steroids have been tried and actually have not been shown to have any benefit and can even make things worse possibly promoting spontaneous peritonitis. Thus the only thing you do when you admit these patients is give them supportive care and hope for the best.
The mortality for this patient group going way back in history(studying this same population profile over decades) comes out to be almost always the same. That being 26% mortality within 28 days and 30% within 90 days. This is a well known constant number by hepatologists who have studied this disease phenomena in detail. With this medication in their Phase2a study, and it was only 19 patients but 14 of them were able to be treated and discharged from the hospital within one day and 5 of them were treated with a second dose and were able to be discharged within four days. This data created a huge stir at the annual liver conference three years ago held in Boston. A hematologist named Dr. Sussman who is well known in the field was so impressed with this drug and its potential that he quit his job and went to work at DRRX. He is extremely knowledgeable and well connected with the liver transplant centers across America. Those 19 patients who were treated had 12 of them that had extremely high MELD scores. That is one measuring test of several liver variables that is widely accepted....there are others as well. Their prognosis was extremely poor and they all survived. The important Phase 2b data should be coming out before this year. There are over 300 patient's in this study. If this verifies what the previous Phase 2a study showed this medication will IMO become universally used when this diagnoses is made in the emergency room. If the charge for this medication is only $35,000 per patient and it has 75% utilization that could make this an over $2 billion dollar market. This would be a win-win-win situation. The patient would survive, it would save medical expenses for the patient, and would save health care costs in general. The cost of a liver transplant is over $875,000 per each operation. That doesn't include the medications and medical expenses post treatment. There are more liver transplants for patient's with alcoholic liver cirrhosis than ever before because they aren't having to do the liver transplants on Hepatitis C patients like they used to do.
You then look at the other types of illnesses that this drug is going to be studied on, that includes: Acute kidney injury, non alcoholic liver disease, septicemia and others. These are all huge markets in the medical field and very serious diseases.
1)Amazing Phase 2a data that is admittedly in a small population but was so amazing that it was voted biggest, most important new potential news at that liver conference in Boston three years ago. If Phase2b matches that data this will be a huge winner. The huge potential to cut down on liver transplants.
2)A top hematologist quit his job to become the chief medical officer at this company, that being Dr. Sussman.
3)The huge market potential beyond this indication for alcohol associated liver disease with epigenetic modulators becoming more and more important in the study of medicine.