Yet another article on the buyout.. | IMGN Message Board Posts


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Msg  57220 of 57658  at  12/2/2023 11:16:40 PM  by

GaryM


 In response to msg 57218 by  Biotechbeagle
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Re: Yet another article on the buyout..

I really believe that if one of them objects, the others will agree.  I'm not saying that in time a partnership shouldn't go through, but the price ought to be substantially higher.
 
I don't believe the vote will come before the Annual Report and if the data for the year is strong, the presentations at ASH, etc are solid, then I believe one or more of the Institutions will openly oppose the deal, and once one says no, there will be a snowball effect that has most of the Institutions lining up to demand more.
 
Perhaps one of the reasons the Institutions balk on the deal may be ABBV's estimate that Elahere will have $2 billion in annual revenue in time.  If you have a P/E of 10 it should make it worth $20 billion for Elahere alone, and I think their estimate may be conservative, and the P/E more like 20 to 30.
 
I frankly don't know if ABBV's seeing what's said at message boards like this, but after the initial positives they saw, I believe that they should be getting the message that investors aren't that satisfied.
 
If the company had continued to operate independently, if ASH was a positive and they were invited to the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in early January, I believe the share price would have been in the $20 to $25 range, if that were the case, would they have accepted an offer that was less than about $40.  I don't think so.
 
I believe $40's a bargain given all that's in the pipeline and existing partnerships where eventually they'll be paid.  For ABBV it's like buying money at a discount.  I don't know if any of the Institutions have been in this from essentially the beginning, as I have, but if they have, I can't imagine them being that satisfied with what they're getting after many decades of holding IMGN.
 
Gary 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
57221 Re: Yet another article on the buyout.. Topexec 0 12/2/2023 11:31:31 PM




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