If they did a raise right now and gave a big discount to current PPS well sure the PPS would go down to the raise level. It does every time. But then it would recover.
They raised $20M at the beginning of the 6 month approval run up period in 2021 and the PPS went to the mid $4's-sh from the low $6's high $5's range but ended up in the $18's at the high near approval & CRL at the end of Feb 2022. I remember it was around a 25% haircut when they raised.
Will they do an offering now with a 25% haircut when they have $20M left on the ATM and $59M in the bank that willl last until at least 6/30/2024 per mgmt's latest estimate? Well anything is possible but that would just be stupid. Especially when you could raise that on the run up and then do a secondary at or after approval. They can also increase the ATM anytime they want. There is plenty of room left on the shelf ($150M) to get whatever amounts they need via ATM if they decide to go that route.
Hey if your thesis is they do an offering now I won't fault you for that but that would not prevent the PPS from running up to approval and I think the probability is much lower now as they have cash to at least June 30, 2024 with $20M more on the ATM that could be offered at no discount to current PPS. They have been contiunously using the ATM and as long as they do so ratably and judisciously I say do it. I think they have been using the ATM wisely and my own analysis of final share count and stress testing your assumptions just supports that even more for me.
All JMHO.