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ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.

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Msg  2 of 11  at  3/19/2021 7:57:16 AM  by

biotech2k


Updated in Depth

Management


Jaume Pons - I got to hear him present at JPM. I thought it did a great job speaking and going over the science.




5 Star Rating


Management – 4 Stars

Science – 4 Stars

Potential – 5 Stars

Valuation – 1 Stars

Balance Sheet – 4 Stars

Total – 3.6 Stars




Potential


Head and Neck Cancer:

Estimated 38,000 with metastatic in the US

Give them 20% market share = 7,600

@ $100,000 price = $760 million



Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer:

Estimated 25,000 with metastatic in the US

Give them 20% market share = 5,000

@ $100,000 price = $500 million



Breast Cancer HER2:

Estimated 30,000 Her2 + metastatic in US

Give the 10% market share = 3,000

@ $100,000 price = $300 million value



MDS:

Estimated 60,0000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 6,000

@ $100,000 price = $600 million



AML:

Estimated 20,000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 2,000

@ $100,000 price = $200 million




NHL:

Estimated 77,000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 7,700

@ $100,000 price = $770 million


Total Sales and Royalties = $3.130 billion

* 8 P/S = $25 billion Market Cap @ 40,127,198 Shares Outstanding = $623.01 Peak Value



Valuation


Head & Neck - $760 million * 1 for phase 1 = $760 million value

GEJ - $500 million * 1 for phase 1 = $500 million value

Breast - $300 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $30 million value

MDS - $600 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $60 million value

AML - $200 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $20 million value

NHL - $770 million * 1 for phase 1 = $770 million value

Cash = $434

Total Value = $2.574 billion @ 40,127,198 Shares Outstanding = $64.14 Current Value



Balance Sheet


Cash - $434 million

Debt - $0

Cash Burn - 75$ million

More then 2 years cash


Last updated 3/19/2021




 


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