Updated in depth | ALXO Message Board Posts


ALX Oncology Holdings Inc.

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Msg  3 of 11  at  5/18/2021 12:19:13 PM  by

biotech2k


Updated in depth

Management


Jaume Pons: Neutral

Seems Like a Good Speaker
Need More Time to Assess Communications Skills
Engages in Conferences Often
Seems to Know the Science Well
Unknown About His Business Decision Skills
Unknown About level of Trust




5 Star Rating


Management – 3 Stars

Science – 4 Stars

Potential – 5 Stars

Valuation – 1 Stars

Balance Sheet – 4 Stars

Total – 3.4 Stars




Potential


ALX148:


Head and Neck Cancer:

Estimated 38,000 with metastatic in the US

Give them 20% market share = 7,600

@ $100,000 price = $760 million



Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer:

Estimated 25,000 with metastatic in the US

Give them 20% market share = 5,000

@ $100,000 price = $500 million



Breast Cancer HER2:

Estimated 30,000 Her2 + metastatic in US

Give the 10% market share = 3,000

@ $100,000 price = $300 million value



MDS:

Estimated 60,0000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 6,000

@ $100,000 price = $600 million



AML:

Estimated 20,000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 2,000

@ $100,000 price = $200 million




NHL:

Estimated 77,000 patients in US

Give them 10% market share = 7,700

@ $100,000 price = $770 million


Total Sales and Royalties = $3.130 billion

* 8 P/S = $25 billion Market Cap @ 40,229,869 Shares Outstanding = $621.42 Peak Value



Valuation


Head & Neck - $760 million * 1 for phase 1 = $760 million value

GEJ - $500 million * 1 for phase 1 = $500 million value

Breast - $300 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $30 million value

MDS - $600 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $60 million value

AML - $200 million * 10% for early phase 1 = $20 million value

NHL - $770 million * 1 for phase 1 = $770 million value

Cash = $429

Total Value = $2.569 billion @ 40,229,869 Shares Outstanding = $63.58 Current Value



Balance Sheet


Cash - $429 million

Debt - $0

Cash Burn - 60$ million

More then 2 years cash


Last updated 5/18/2021

 


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