Short update. It would be perfect payback if the Ukrainians did an end run of Russian defenses by attacking through Russia. Probably just a diversion and a means to draw Russian forces away from the coming Ukrainian counterattack.

 

Key Takeaways

• Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast (Russia) on May 22.
• Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials.
• The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months.
• Ukrainian officials stated that limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on May 22.
• The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation. The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the information space.
• Russian forces launched another large-scale drone and missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of May 21-22.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.
• Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reportedly lost power for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.
• The Russian military is reportedly lowering the length of training for convicts in order to compensate for heavy losses.
• Russian occupation authorities announced that preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia Party has commenced in occupied territories.