This transcript signals that Rambus expects its current buffer sales ($225M a quarter) to grow at approx 19% CAGR yearly through 2025 (assuming no material changes in the current market SHARE of nearly 26%). If Rambus also can increase its market share...that growth estimate can be accelerated.
<< Right. And we expect DDR5 to ramp in volume in the second half of 2023. We see the crossover point in units between DDR4 and DDR5 to happen the end of the first half of '24 in volumes. So, DDR4 is going to continue to last. It's always been the case in every generation, is going to be a long-tail while the new generation ramps up and we just have to manage those inventories to do and backlog doing the transition in the first half of '23.>>
Please note that the above is much more realistic regarding generational transitions than the initial forecasts that Twobytebus was spreading on the board several months ago regarding the Sapphire Rapids transition driver for increasing Rambus revenue. (Essentially....we were both right on DIRECTION....but as usual, Twobytebus's timing projections were too optimistic.)
Given the comments...Rambus has a good handle on almost all of its current revenue streams EXCEPT CXL 2.0 memory expanders and pooling products...which represent a $700M potential opportunity (of the $800M 2025 market size Rambus projects). If Rambus can capture 20%-30% of that market in data centers....this would represent $160-$240M in annual new revenue potential. However...since sales to date are pretty immaterial...the two uncertainties are 1) when the CXL 2.0/3.0 market products will start ramping; and 2) how much market share Rambus can capture in this nascent market.
VG
Note - Still bullish on the stock...with Rambus heavily overweight in my portfolio.