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Terrance Flynn lowers price target to 60Giovanni must have slept with this guys sister. They bang the drum on Revlimid LOE but when it beats its low quality. His take below: Revlimid drove the 4Q beat, which we view as low quality. New product performance was mixed. 2023 guide was in line on revs and ahead on EPS, as expenses are lower than expected. BMY's 2023 revenue guidance of 2% yoy growth (implies $47.1bn) was between Refinitiv consensus of $47.2bn and MSe $46.4bn. Revlimid guidance of $6.5bn is below our $7.2bn (cons. $7bn). 2023 EPS guidance of $7.95-$8.25 (midpoint $8.10) is above MSe/Refinitiv consensus of $7.81/$8.00. Gross margin guidance of 77% is in line with MSe 76.6% (below consensus of 77.7%) and operating expense guidance is for LSD decline (vs. MSe/cons 2%/1% growth). Tax rate guidance of 17% is slightly above MSe 16.5% and cons of 16.6%. 4Q top-line and bottom-line: Revenues were $11.4bn, 2% above cons' $11.2bn and 3% above our $11.1bn. Operating Income $4.1bn, 5% below cons' $4.3bn and 6% below our $4.3bn. EPS was $1.82, 6% above cons' $1.72 and 0% below our $1.83. *$0.01 per share equates to approximately $23.9mn pretax ($0.01) EPS downside vs. our model included: Revenues +0.14, COGS -0.12, SG&A -0.06, R&D -0.06, IPR&D -0.01, Other -0.04, Taxes +0.12, Share count +0.02 4Q I/S YoY growth: revs -5%, gross profit -8%, oper inc -13%, pretax -10%, net inc -6%, EPS -1%. REV BEATS/MISSES Recently Launched Products: Reblozyl $199mn, $3mn or 1% below our $202mn. Zeposia $79mn, $5mn or 6% below our $84mn. Onureg $37mn, $7mn or 16% below our $44mn. Breyanzi $55mn, $10mn or 22% above our $45mn. Abecma $125mn, $15mn or 14% above our $110mn. Opdualag $104mn, $4mn or 4% above our $100mn. Sotyktu $7mn, $2mn or 40% above our $5mn. Camzyos $16mn, $4mn or 33% above our $12mn. Inrebic $23mn, $3mn or 10% below our $26mn. Established Products: Opdivo $2,216mn, $134mn or 6% above our $2,082mn. Eliquis $2,688mn, $3mn above our $2,685mn. Yervoy $568mn, $47mn or 8% below our $615mn. Empliciti $71mn, $7mn or 9% below our $78mn. Sprycel $578mn, $72mn or 14% above our $506mn. Orencia $913mn, $72mn or 9% above our $841mn. Revlimid $2,260mn, $131mn or 6% above our $2,130mn. Abraxane $179mn, $0mn or 0% below our $179mn. Pomalyst/Imnovid $877mn, $24mn or 3% below our $901mn. Key topics/questions for the call: (1) Perspective on 2023 guidance, (2) progress with new product cycles, (3) pipeline progress - including Milvexian, Sotyktu for IBD, and BMS-986278 in IPF, and (4) capital allocation update. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
10780 | Re: Terrance Flynn lowers price target to 60 - Reverse Sapna | JBWIN | 6 | 2/2/2023 10:05:01 AM |