I thought I had sold but my guy wasn't listening so I called and sold today. That mistake made me a few extra bucks. The NR gave AGU a new all time high today but I'm still a little worried about India and China driving potash prices down. Here's today's NR.

 

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwire - Jan. 24, 2013) - ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN US$

Agrium Inc. (TSX:AGU) (NYSE:AGU) announced today that it expects its 2012 fourth quarter earnings to be slightly above $2.00¹ per diluted share. This estimate excludes hedging gains or losses, share-based payments recovery for the fourth quarter and non-recurring non-operating gains. Agrium's previously announced fourth quarter earnings guidance was $1.50 to $1.90 per diluted share on a comparable basis.

Our Retail business unit is expected to generate over $120-million of EBITDA² or the fourth quarter which equates to an expected record year of approximately $950-million of EBITDA in 2012. Our Wholesale business also continued to generate better than expected results with EBITDA for the fourth quarter and year anticipated to exceed $500-million and $1.9-billion respectively.

"The increase in our estimated financial results is due to a very strong finish to the fall application season in our North American Retail operations, supported by an extended fall season in the U.S. and continued strength in grain and oilseed prices. Going forward, continued strength in crop prices and low global grain inventories are anticipated to support a strong spring application season in 2013," said Mike Wilson, Agrium President and CEO.

Our finalized fourth quarter financial statements and audited annual financial results along with a more detailed review of operations and the outlook for our business will be provided on February 22, 2013.

The major assumptions made in updating our fourth quarter guidance are outlined below and include but are not limited to:

• The consolidated income tax rate approximating 29 percent for the fourth quarter
• The exclusion from the guidance range of the effects in the fourth quarter of:
  • Share-based payments
  • Gains or losses on hedge positions
  • Non-recurring non-operating gains

(1)

Earnings are subject to completion of quarterly financial close processes and approval of the 2012 audited financial statements by Agrium's Board of Directors.

(2)

EBITDA, a non-IFRS measure, is defined as earnings from continuing operations before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. EBITDA does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and our method of calculation for such measure may not be comparable with that of other companies. We consider EBITDA to be a useful measure of performance because income tax jurisdictions and business segments are not synonymous and we believe that allocation of income tax charges distorts the comparability of performance for our different business segments. Similarly, financing and related interest charges cannot be allocated to all business units on a basis that is meaningful for comparison with other companies.