Leverage did prior to news thought 20 or 30 depending about AIWG news.  I think that is about right.

 

Some additional thoughts: 

 

(1) Failure of both trials clearly was a surprised that did warrant a hit to pps.  Manner of disclosure and lack of ANY data added to that -- I cannot still understand why Corcept in a departure from past practice released a two sentence PR without any data.  Does Bill G think he is still at Gilead?

 

(2) While the comments about NASH P2 next year were worth something, in absence of data it is worth nothing.   

 

(3) Until data about liver function impact in AIWG trails and the P1 in NASH proves otherwise I have written off Mira from valuation (in all indications).  I had penciled in $500mm for Mira with expectation of some success in AIWG and the preliminary data in NASH.  That did not happen, and lack of data from Corcept means zero value in NASH until proven otherwise.

 

(4) No doubt that shorts will make hay and regurgitate concerns about Corcept (size of Kormlyn market / off label marketing litigation / competition from other drugs in Cushings).  While those have little merit the trial failure and the terrible communication by Corcept will help the shorts

 

(5) Number of us thought that 28-29 was the top prior and posted that those with shorter horizons and swing shares should lighten up.  if one did that then good time to add below $20 as I think we will get there in next two weeks.